Policy Watch

Policy Watch - November 2015

Thailand’s economy is recovering (very) slowly.  But it is a recovery to a lower and slower growth trajectory.  Recovery does not mean that we are going back to the way things were used to be.  We have been through this before.  Like other crisis countries, Thailand took a big hit during the 1997 Asian crisis.  It took 5 years for the level of economic activity—as measured by real GDP excluding the effects of inflation—to recover back to what it was pre-1997.  But as can be seen in Figure 1, it was a recovery to a slower and lower growth trajectory.  The economy never managed to hit the kind of growth rates it experienced before on a sustained basis.  During our boom years between 1985-1995, growth averaged 9%.  It has dropped to 5% between 2000-2010 and to 3% since 2010.

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